Confluence Signals
A probability-based indicator designed to reduce bad decisions.
Highlight probable buy and sell moments.
Confluence reflects aligned market signals.
The why
This indicator was created to stop making stupid trading mistakes. Not to find perfect entries. Not to predict the future. Just to reduce bad decisions.
Stop reacting to single indicators
One RSI reading or one MACD cross is not enough. Markets are complex; isolated signals lead to isolated losses.
Stop forcing trades
When the market is unclear, the best position is often no position. This indicator stays quiet on purpose when conditions don't align.
Most losses come from poor decisions
Not from a lack of indicators. The problem is usually emotional reactions, overtrading, and acting under uncertainty.
Confluence as a guardrail
Multiple independent confirmations must align before the indicator highlights a potential opportunity. This filters out noise.
Then — better timing
Once discipline and filtering are in place, identifying better buy and sell windows becomes easier and more consistent.
The goal is not perfection. The goal is to make fewer impulsive trades, filter out noise, and only act when multiple factors align. The indicator is a filter first, and a signal second.
Quick start
For beginners: five steps to get started without overcomplicating things.
Add the indicator
Click "View on TradingView" at the top and add it to your chart.
Leave settings at default
The defaults are calibrated for general use. Avoid changing them until you understand what each setting does.
Learn the probability zones
Understand what 0–25 (bullish), 25–75 (neutral), and 75–100 (bearish) mean before acting on any signal.
Use it to filter trades
Focus on filtering out bad trades first. Don't chase entries — let the indicator reduce noise.
Always define risk first
Before any trade, know your position size, stop loss, and invalidation point. The indicator does not manage risk for you.
Beginner tip
Mental model: how it works
The indicator aggregates multiple independent confirmations into a single probability score. Here's the simplified flow.
What it provides
- ✓Insight into market momentum
- ✓Noise filtering through confluence
- ✓Clear probability zones
- ✓Environmental context
What it does not provide
- ✗Certainty or guarantees
- ✗Automatic trade decisions
- ✗Position sizing recommendations
- ✗Risk management for you
Probability score & zones
The indicator outputs a score from 0 to 100, divided into three meaningful zones. The middle zone represents intentional inactivity.
Bullish Confluence Zone
Multiple indicators align in a bullish direction. This does not mean "buy now" — it means conditions are favorable for considering a long position if your own analysis agrees.
Uncertainty Zone
Indicators are mixed or neutral. This is a deliberate "do nothing" signal. The indicator is quiet here on purpose — it means there is no clear confluence in either direction.
Bearish Confluence Zone
Multiple indicators align in a bearish direction. This does not mean "sell now" — it means conditions are favorable for considering a short position or taking profits on longs.
Reference lines at 25 and 75 mark the zone boundaries. The indicator is designed to spend significant time in the middle zone — this is intentional, not a flaw.
Dual confirmation
Background colors appear only under strict conditions. This is the highest level of confluence the indicator can show — and it is intentionally rare.
Bullish Background
Appears when all heatmap indicators agree on bullish conditions simultaneously. This represents maximum bullish confluence.
Brightness reflects cycle maturity — brighter means more confirmed.
Bearish Background
Appears when all heatmap indicators agree on bearish conditions simultaneously. This represents maximum bearish confluence.
Brightness reflects cycle maturity — brighter means more confirmed.
Why this strict rule?
Requiring all indicators to agree makes false positives extremely rare. When you see a background color, you know that multiple independent systems are all pointing in the same direction. This is environmental context, not a command — it tells you the market environment, not what to do.
Components overview
The indicator combines multiple analysis systems, each contributing to the final score. Click each component to see advanced details.
Advanced Detail
Combines volume patterns, price action, and momentum to identify Wyckoff phases. Uses volatility cycles to detect regime changes. Weighted heavily because cycle awareness prevents trading against the broader trend.
What it provides
- + Phase awareness
- + Cycle position
- + Trend context
What it does not solve
- − Exact reversal timing
- − Future phase prediction
Advanced Detail
Includes RSI, MACD, Stochastic, OBV, ADX, Bollinger Bands, Ichimoku, Moving Averages, CCI, and Williams %R. Each indicator contributes to the overall score. Dual confirmation backgrounds require all 10 to agree.
What it provides
- + Multi-indicator alignment
- + Visual confluence summary
- + Quick assessment
What it does not solve
- − Indicator conflicts
- − Which indicator to trust
Advanced Detail
Analyzes trend direction on higher timeframes relative to the chart timeframe. Signals are stronger when all timeframes point the same way. Prevents trading against higher timeframe trends.
What it provides
- + Timeframe alignment
- + Trend confirmation
- + Context from higher TFs
What it does not solve
- − Timeframe selection
- − Scalping entries
Advanced Detail
Dynamically adjusts smoothing based on volatility. High volatility = more smoothing to reduce whipsaws. Low volatility = less smoothing for responsiveness. Uses ATR-based calculations.
What it provides
- + Noise reduction
- + Cleaner signals
- + Volatility adaptation
What it does not solve
- − Lag elimination
- − Perfect timing
Advanced Detail
Feature engineering on price, volume, and indicator data. Online learning adapts to recent market behavior. Conservative implementation — reduces false positives rather than predicting moves.
What it provides
- + Pattern filtering
- + Quality assessment
- + Adaptive learning
What it does not solve
- − Future prediction
- − Guaranteed accuracy
Advanced Detail
TD Sequential (9-count timing), Squeeze Momentum (volatility breakouts), Twiggs Money Flow (volume-price), Inverse Fisher Transform (noise reduction). Elliott Wave structure validation (5% weight) for wave pattern confirmation.
What it provides
- + Timing signals
- + Momentum confirmation
- + Volatility context
What it does not solve
- − Elliott wave counting
- − Perfect timing
Total weights sum to 100%. Weights are calibrated for general use and should not be modified without understanding the implications.
How to read the indicator
A practical workflow for using Confluence Signals in your trading process. This is a framework, not a rigid system.
Determine market context
Before looking at signals, understand the current market environment. Is it trending or ranging? What is the higher timeframe bias?
Use probability zones to filter
If the score is in the 25–75 zone, there is no clear confluence. This is the indicator telling you to wait, not to force a trade.
Look for confluence, not triggers
A signal is not a command. Look for alignment between the indicator, your own analysis, and the market context. Confluence means multiple factors agree.
Define invalidation and risk
Before entering, know exactly where you are wrong and how much you are willing to lose. The indicator does not set stops for you.
Execute independently
Make the decision yourself. Press the buttons yourself. Own the outcome. The indicator informs; it does not execute.
Accept outcomes
Some trades will lose despite good confluence. Some will win despite weak confluence. Accept variance without shifting responsibility.
What this indicator is not
- • Not an entry/exit generator — it does not tell you when to buy or sell
- • Not a strategy — it is a decision support tool within your own strategy
- • Not responsible for outcomes — responsibility stays with the trader
Settings
The default settings are calibrated for general use across most markets and timeframes. Understand what each setting does before changing it.
Core Parameters
Base settings for the indicator's calculations.
Automatically adjusts parameters based on volatility. Leave on unless you understand the implications.
Core calculation period. Higher values = smoother but more lag. Lower = responsive but noisier.
Changing core parameters without understanding them can degrade signal quality.
Avoid overfitting
Alerts
TradingView alerts can notify you when confluence levels are reached. Alerts are prompts to review, not commands to trade.
Strict Threshold Alerts
Only triggers when confluence reaches maximum levels. Fewer alerts, higher quality. Best for traders who want to be notified only of the strongest setups.
- • Very few false positives
- • High confluence required
- • Less noise
- • May miss some valid opportunities
- • Alerts are infrequent
Sensitive Threshold Alerts
Triggers on moderate confluence levels. More alerts, requires more filtering. Best for active traders who want early warnings.
- • Catches more opportunities
- • Earlier notification
- • More data points
- • Requires manual filtering
- • More noise
- • Not all alerts are actionable
Alerts are review prompts
When an alert fires, it means conditions have reached a threshold worth reviewing. It does not mean you should immediately enter a trade.
Every alert should trigger a review process: check the chart, assess context, verify your own analysis, and only then decide whether action is appropriate.
Setting up alerts in TradingView
- 1.Right-click on the indicator pane and select "Add Alert"
- 3.Configure notification method (app, email, webhook)
- 4.Set expiration and confirm
Responsibility & control
An indicator can inform. It cannot decide for you. These principles are non-negotiable.
Position sizing
You always choose your own position size.
- •This indicator does not know your account size.
- •It does not know your risk tolerance.
- •It does not know your personal objectives.
Position sizing is a conscious decision you must make yourself.
Intentional actions
You should know why you are taking a trade.
- •Seeing confluence on a chart is not a reason by itself.
- •Every action should have a thesis.
- •Every action should have an invalidation.
- •Every action should have a predefined risk.
If you cannot explain why you are taking a trade, you should not be in it.
Owning the buttons
This indicator does not press any buttons.
- •You decide when to enter.
- •You decide when to exit.
- •You decide when to stay out.
Responsibility for those actions cannot be outsourced to an indicator, a signal, or a setting.
Imperfect decisions
No trading decision is ever perfect.
- •Some good trades will lose.
- •Some imperfect trades will work.
- •Uncertainty is not a flaw; it is a core property of markets.
The goal is to reduce poor decisions, manage risk consciously, and accept outcomes without shifting responsibility elsewhere.
Frequently asked questions
Common questions about the indicator, its behavior, and proper usage.
The indicator is designed to minimize repainting. Signals are confirmed at bar close, not during the bar. However, like all indicators that use current price data, the probability line will update as the current bar develops. Final signals are stable once the bar closes.
The indicator is market-agnostic and works on any liquid market (crypto, forex, stocks, commodities). It performs best on timeframes from 15 minutes to daily. Very short timeframes (1-5 min) have more noise; very long timeframes (weekly/monthly) have fewer signals. The 1H and 4H charts are popular choices.
This is intentional. The indicator requires multiple confirmations before highlighting an opportunity. Fewer signals means higher quality — the filter is working as designed. If you want more signals, you may need to reconsider your expectations. More signals rarely means better results.
Beginners should use the indicator primarily as a filter — to avoid bad trades rather than find perfect entries. Leave settings at default and focus on the probability zones. Advanced traders can explore the component weightings, adjust thresholds, and integrate the indicator into their existing strategies as one data point among many.
The indicator includes a built-in performance tracker that shows historical win rate and returns based on signal alternation. However, past performance does not predict future results. The backtest is for reference only — use it to understand how the indicator behaves, not to predict profits.
This is an indicator, not a strategy. A strategy defines entries, exits, position sizing, and risk management. This indicator provides decision support — confluence information that you incorporate into your own strategy. You still need to define your own rules for when and how to trade.
The probability score (0-100) shows the current confluence level as a continuous value. Signals (buy/sell labels) appear when the score crosses into extreme zones and certain conditions are met. The score is always visible; signals are discrete events that require threshold crossings.
Technically, you can set up alerts that trigger webhooks for automated execution. However, this indicator is designed for decision support, not automation. Automating signals without understanding context removes the human judgment that makes the indicator useful. Proceed with extreme caution if automating.
Signals can fire when the score is transitioning through the neutral zone if other conditions (like signal alternation and enhanced indicator confirmation) are met. The zones are guidelines, not hard boundaries. Context from the full indicator system matters more than the exact score.
There is no guaranteed "good" signal. Higher confluence (closer to 0 or 100), dual confirmation backgrounds, and alignment with higher timeframe trends all increase probability — but never guarantee success. A "good" signal is one that aligns with your own analysis and risk management, not just the indicator reading.
Support development
Confluence Signals is built and maintained independently. Donations help support ongoing development and improvements.
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